Optimization of Trading Systems and Portfolios

John Moody and Lizhong Wu - Oregon Graduate Institute of Science & Technology

We propose to train trading systems and portfolios by optimizing objective functions that directly measure trading and investment performance. Rather than basing a trading system on forecasts or training via a supervised learning algorithm using labeled trading data, we train our systems using recurrent reinforcement learning algorithms. The objective functions that we consider as evaluation functions for reinforcement learning are profit or wealth, economic utility, the Sharpe ratio, and our proposed Differential Sharpe Ratio. The trading and portfolio management systems require prior decisions as input in order to properly take into account the effects of transactions costs, market impact, and taxes. This temporal dependence on system state requires the use of reinforcement versions of standard recurrent learning algorithms. We present empirical results in controlled experiments that demonstrate the efficacy of some of our methods. We find that maximizing the differential Sharpe ratio yields more consistent results than maximizing profits, and that both methods outperform a trading system based on forecasts that minimize MSE.

Scheduled for Session 3.4 Financial Models - II